Formula One: Takeaways from Hungary, Storylines from Spa

With the upcoming Belgian Grand Prix and looking back at the Hungarian Grand Prix, how will things turn out this upcoming weekend?

STAVELOT, BE - The Hungarian Grand Prix went just about as expected: another win for Max Verstappen, and another record broken by Red Bull (12 consecutive race wins). Besides Red Bull’s continued dominance, McLaren scored some crucial points to close the gap to Ferrari, Lewis Hamilton secured his first pole position since the 2021 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, and Daniel Ricciardo had a stunning AlphaTauri debut. Ferrari fumbled again, and Alpine finished with yet another double-DNF after a Turn 1 crash involving both cars. Let’s recap the Hungarian GP and discuss what to look for during this weekend’s Sprint activities in Belgium.

Alpine’s double-DNF maybe one of the biggest storylines from last weekend. Pierre Gasly and Esteban Ocon qualified P15 and P12 respectively, but crashed into each other at Turn 1 forcing both cars to retire. Ocon was sent to the hospital after his seat cracked under him, and Ricciardo caught some damage in the incident. The bad news kept coming for Alpine heading into this weekend: between practice and qualifying on Friday, it was confirmed that Team Principal Otmar Szafnauer would be parting ways with the team after the Grand Prix, as well as Sporting Director Alan Permane. The back-to-back double-DNFs undoubtedly contribute to their departure, as Alpine must be looking for new leadership to try to turn the season around. Their disadvantage to McLaren is widening, after they claimed fourth place to McLaren’s fifth in the Constructors’ Championship last season. 

Back in Hungary last weekend, Lewis Hamilton claimed his first pole position in over two years after his teammate George Russell qualified P18. Despite the hot and cold qualifying session for Mercedes, Russell was able to storm back into P6 on race day, while Hamilton dropped to P4 within the first two turns of the track. They scored important points to further the gap between the recently struggling Aston Martin team, and extend their 50+ point lead over Ferrari. Toto Wolff’s Mercedes team is bringing a new wing upgrade for the Belgian GP, which will reduce downforce and make the car safer over the infamous Eau Rouge corner that can be extremely dangerous, especially in the wet conditions expected this weekend. 

Ferrari disappointed fans for yet another weekend in Hungary, finishing P7 (Leclerc) and P8 (Sainz). Carlos Sainz moved up 3 positions in the race, while Charles dropped a position. Both drivers continue to note the lack of pace in the car, which is unsurprising considering their lack of upgrades compared to other teams that decided to bring packages to the Hungarian GP. They look ahead to Belgium, where in the wet conditions, there is less of a chance for the strategists to make bad decisions as they have been all season. In the instance of changing conditions during the race on Sunday, Ferrari will have to stay one step ahead of the weather and hope for good qualifying results. If the drivers can score valuable points during the Sprint, they could close the gap to Aston Martin, and also try to jump in the Drivers’ Championship standings. 

McLaren’s performance in Hungary was just more of the same after an exceptional weekend in Silverstone. Lando Norris claimed another P2 after qualifying P3, and Oscar Piastri finished P5 after qualifying P4. They don’t have a chance to catch Ferrari this weekend, but the gap is fast closing with McLaren’s continued upgrades and Ferrari’s lack thereof. I expect McLaren to perform well this weekend with the wet conditions in Belgium, as both drivers put up good lap times during the first practice. Lando Norris is known to love the rain, and with Max Verstappen serving a five-place grid penalty for a gearbox change, he might be able to improve his P2 streak to P1 for the first time in his Formula 1 career. 

Daniel Ricciardo wasn’t expected to do well last weekend, especially in the AlphaTauri, but his P13 finish was excellent after taking some damage in the first turn. He out-qualified his new teammate Yuki Tsunoda by four places (P13 and P17), and maintained his P13 finish to Tsunoda’s P15. This weekend in Belgium, Ricciardo looks to beat AlphaTauri’s best finish this season, finishing somewhere above P10 to get some points on the board. Speaking of the bottom teams and qualifying, Alfa Romeo had their best starting position all season with Zhou Guanyu qualifying P5 in Hungary. Valterri Bottas qualified P7, marking one of the best ever qualifying sessions for Alfa Romeo in their history. Both drivers dropped positions in the race, with Bottas finishing P12 and Zhou in P16 after a brake failure at the start of the race. Qualifying above drivers from the top four teams was an exceptional feat, but the AR drivers need to work on racecraft in order to score points in what is shaping up to be a disappointing season. 

Entering into the Belgium Grand Prix weekend, Max Verstappen will be serving a 5-place grid penalty for an unscheduled gearbox change. The penalty is not expected to slow him down by any means, but a potentially wet race on Sunday could shake things up a bit. Here are my predictions for the race results on Sunday: 

1. Max Verstappen (Red Bull)

2. Sergio Pérez (Red Bull)

3. George Russell (Mercedes)

4. Lando Norris (McLaren)

5. Oscar Piastri (McLaren)

6. Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)

7. Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)

8. Carlos Sainz (Ferrari)

9. Alex Albon (Williams)

10. Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin)

11. Nico Hülkenberg (Haas)

12. Daniel Ricciardo (AlphaTauri)

13. Valterri Bottas (Alfa Romeo)

14. Lance Stroll (Aston Martin)

15. Esteban Ocon (Alpine)

16. Zhou Guanyu (Alfa Romeo)

17. Pierre Gasly (Alpine)

18. Yuki Tsunoda (AlphaTauri)

19. Kevin Magnussen (Haas)

20. Logan Sargeant (Williams)